SubStack Link Click Here

Intro

Thursday

SPY prints $3B borderline, neutral.

QQQ prints $1.8B borderline, neutral.

Macro trend buying due to very large AMZN trades.

Realtime prints high volume TLT, AMZN. Looks like they exited the SQQQ trade (and possibly VXX) and entered SPXL (mildly bullish).

Close prints neutral.

Indexes are sitting here cooling off in a neutral spot. I expect a bounce next. If that happens, I can’t say yet if the next move is a “B Wave” for a-b-c down or the start of something new. The start of something new usually comes with high volume megacap realtime trades.

Friday

We got the bounce on Friday, and then the rally failed. On a bounce day, you want to see high volume 9:30 prints and incremental trades throughout the day that stay green. I call that “buying the way up”, which did not happen on Friday.

TLT

Many folks have asked me about TLT. Are the boys buying or selling? If AMZN had trades like this, I’d say that the boys were loading up bigtime. I’m not a macro guy and hate to follow the news. TLT is tied to the news and the yield. Theoretically, if rates go down, TLT goes up and vise versa. The yield has been shooting up, but took a little breather on Friday. When looking at the chart, TLT is not bullish by any indicator I use. That poses a problem. Trades look like buying, chart looks like poop. In this type of situation, I like to see price going over big darkpool levels. Paid subscribers have all those trades. If the boys have loaded the boat with TLT, price won’t run off and leave you. If these trades are buys, you’ll have opportunities to hop on the train along the way.

SPY PRINTS

449 level even more important now. New level at 446.77