Thursday

SPY has a very large trade at the lows and also > $10B volume. Many times > $10B volume on SPY at the lows means that a local low is close. The $5.8B trade at the lows is typically either: 1) short covering, where we’ll get a little rally that fails 2) buying, meaning a new trend starts. Of course, the trade could also be selling, and we keep going lower. That’s why I always say “watch levels”. We need to see price overtaking those levels, not just taking for granted that trades at the lows are buys.

QQQ continues to look bearish.

Macro trend bearish.

Realtime prints have a few interesting trades to watch. Draw these levels on your chart. AAPL & NVDA are market leaders. Where they go, the market often follows.

• AAPL 173.98
• NVDA 433.95

Close prints have a few megacaps with high volume. I’d much rather see more tickers with high volume before getting bullish.

One other thing to note is that ES (S&P 500 E-mini) just tapped an A=C 1.618 fib tonight (chart below). You often will get a bounce there.

Price is very far from the mean right now, which tends to cause a bounce. That being said, this is not a place where I will be looking for longs.

Friday

Check out those QQQ levels on Friday. Low was within 1 cent of the levels I sent on Thursday. Then we got the bounce I talked about on Thursday.

SPY PRINTS

(More) trades at the lows overtaking trades at the highs. If 436 holds, it will be a bullish development. That makes almost $12B SPY trading at 436 in the last 2 days.