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Note From Rolls
Data is missing 9:30 – 10:25 on Friday. We always get big trades at the open, so those are not in the writeup today. I’m not happy about this either. We’re just going to make the best with what we have today. Realtime trade volume will not be as reliable.
Intro
Thursday
SPY trades at the lows larger than trades at the highs. Bullish.
QQQ large trade at the lows then about $725M borderline. Need to watch 339.83.
Macro stock trend selling. Watch SPY high volume trade box.
Realtime prints are mixed. Megacaps and semis are high volume at the highs. Other tickers like TLT & XLV are high volume trades at the lows. Could be rotation.
Close prints high volume. Drawing another high volume trade box.
“2 Ton Tilly” still a good pivot.
Notice:
- NQ is finding acceptance at the highs and keeps moving up with a bullish chart.
- ES is meandering around in a range and neutral chart.
- RTY has been dropping and bearish chart.
- YM (DOW) just crossed under the 200 day moving average and probably most bearish chart.
If you’re having a tough time, this isn’t an easy place to make a call. Each chart is doing it’s own thing. A good number of the tickers in the market are at the lows. When enough tickers are at the lows, that is a bullish signal. My advise would be to play level by level on a chart you follow with good risk management.
With darkpool trades like this, usually what happens next would be FOMO candles and a higher high on SPY. One last distribution before they drop and start over. I wouldn’t be surprised if positive debt ceiling news or a holiday weekend mood floats us up to month end. Watch the levels. Levels are always most important indicator.
Friday
From Thursday: “usually what happens next would be FOMO candles and a higher high on SPY”
Anyone see a FOMO candle? Maybe a few tall 15 minute greenies? Wow, anyone who was thinking to short the market and read my note in the paid section could have adapted and avoided a big drawdown. People tell me all the time that this Substack is the best $15 they spend in a month. If you want market clues like this, consider subscribing today.
How did I know? Good question. When you watch the darkpools trade long enough, you start to see patterns. Many services can show you trades. The value you get from me is what “usually” happens next (and a unique method for aggregate levels).
I have been talking about using “2 Ton Tilly” as a pivot for the market. Folks who took that advise are up 8 SPY points.
Look how all the SPY levels were tested on Friday. All of them.
QQQ tested my highest level and launched.
SPY PRINTS
Trades at the lows and no trades at the highs. Bullish. Could be that we get late prints at the highs on Monday or heavy close prints that could change my mind.
