Partial update today.

Macro Trend

Macro trend looks like selling the highs. Notice high volume on Friday comparable to an opex day (no event on Friday though). Also $92B SPY since 6/13, which is enough to sell quite a large position. Remember, they can’t sell everything at the top, the investment banks scale out of positions.

SPY & QQQ levels to watch

Normally, trades at the lows overtaking trades at the highs is a bullish clue.

The SPY trade at 433 could be a short cover (or not). This is the level to watch on Monday.

The QQQ trade at 362 could also be a short cover (or not). This is the level to watch on Monday.

Crazy close print on META. Off the charts. Likely selling into strength.

RR breadth indicator is in a place where a bounce should come soon. 4hr likes to bounce at -400’ish.

4hr: -318

daily: 42

Summary

It might be a good idea to set some catastrophic stops before Monday if you are long. I suspect that many knew about the Russia news ahead of time and also interesting that they waited until the US markets closed before anything happened.

If they want to bounce the market here, you usually see the futures tank on Sunday, and then a bottom forms on Monday or Tuesday. If they want to take the market down lower here, the levels I just gave you will fail, and we will see trades at the highs overtaking trades at the lows.

Good luck, and hope this helps.

Rolls