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Intro
Tuesday
SPY low volume, neutral. Keep watching “2 Ton Tilly”. Very important level.
QQQ new level, watch 328.5.
Macro trend neutral on down day. Could be dip buying.
Realtime prints high volume TLT META (again)
Close prints high volume AMZN MSFT at the highs.
I have a longer term bearish outlook due to megacap prints at the highs. Short term, the data isn’t telling. I tend to think we bounce in the next few days for a much larger distribution at a higher level.
Wednesday
Tonight I’m going to walk through an example of using the data provided in this newsletter for a trade. Please understand this isn’t an alert service, and I don’t recommend particular trades. The best way to use the newsletter is to integrate my levels and bias into your own trading strategy. I’ve been watching the darkpools trade for several years and know when it looks normal or they are up to something.
Last night I thought they were up to something and wrote this:
The boys could be doing a couple of things. First is de-risking ahead of a volatility event like the US Debt Ceiling. Or they could be buying for a run up. I don’t have time to analyze all these trades tonight. Most of the time, prints like these are a bullish sign. Most of the time.
I said “most of the time” and spelled out a bullish thesis twice. I’ll never say “the market is going up tomorrow”. Mainly because anything can happen, and these guys can make the market go up and down by pushing a button. I can also be wrong.
That’s why you need levels. Check out the chart below.
Notice the selloff in the morning on “2 Ton Tilly”, then a really odd news spike, and a test of the 20 day moving average. After the test, SPY starts zooming over “2 Ton Tilly”, which I’ve said over and over is the max important level.
Nimble traders made $3.50 on SPY today with this data.
Bias + Confirmation with Levels = High probability trade
I’ll talk a little more about those trades in the summary section, because there’s a caveat.
SPY PRINTS
Bullish, trades at the lows overtaking trades at the highs.
